The New York Sun; 
Date:Jan 17, 2005; 
Section:Editorial & Opinion; 
Page:8
Mideast Bombshell 

While Prime Minister Sharon is breaking off contact with
the Palestinian Authority until it halts terror attacks
against Israel, a new development has burst in the debate
over the future of the Jewish State. It is triggered
by a study of population trends among the Jewish and
Palestinian Arab populations. The study casts doubt on the
assumption, nursed by Palestinian Arab demographers and
propagandists, that Jews are rapidly becoming a minority
in their own country. Instead, it looks like Palestinian
Arab population trends are weaker and Jewish ones stronger
than has been assumed in recent years, a finding that has
enormous implications for strategy in a war that is being
fought not only on the military front but also in a highly
complex political and sociological debate.

The new findings, which have just been presented at the
American Enterprise Institute and the Heritage Foundation,
have received only scant notice in the press. And they are
not definitive. But Caroline Glick of the Jerusalem Post
reports on our Page 1 today that the new numbers put paid a
series of population statistics issued by the Palestinians,
starting with a report, published in 1997, which projected
that the Arab population west of the Jordan river would
outnumber the Jewish population by 2015. Writes Ms. Glick:

The Palestinian projections, which place the Arab
population of Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip at 3.83
million and the Israeli Arab population at 1.33 million
for a total of 5.16 million Arabs west of the Jordan River,
put Israel with its 5.24 million Jews at the precipice of
demographic parity with the Arabs.


The new study was lead by an American businessman,
Bennett Zimmerman, and an Israeli strategic consultant,
Yoram Ettinger. Ms. Glick reports that their findings
show that, as she puts it, contrary to common wisdom,
the Jewish majority west of the Jordan River has remained
stable since 1967. In 1967 Jews made up 64.1 percent
of the overall population and in 2004 they made up 59.5
percent. Inside Israel proper, including Jerusalem, Jews
make up 80 percent of the population.

She characterizes the report as showing that the current
policies in Jerusalem are based in large part on an
uncritical acceptance of fraudulent data whose purpose was
to demoralize Israel into capitulating to what she calls
its post modern foe.

If borne out by further study, what this means is that
Israel could well be in a much stronger position than
it has been thought to be the during hand wringing
about the demographic crisis.  This doesn't mean that a
Jewish majority is relieved of responsibilities for non
Jewish minorities. But it is starting to look like the
notion that Jews are soon to become a minority in their
own land is wishful thinking by Israel's detractors or
a premeditated demographic deception concocted in the
Palestinian Arab propaganda mills and accepted by an all
to credulous intelligentsia. The fear of being reduced to a
minority in the land of Israel has fueled the retreat from
Gaza and the West Bank that has been offered by various
governments. It may be that the adjustment of the lines
Prime Minister Sharon has been pressing for still looks
logical, for military reasons. But the new data suggest
that Israel needn't be in any rush, nor need it operate
out of a fear of demography. It can take its time to do
what is right and best for its people in the long term.